Why ALT Season Has Not Happened

Alt season has not occurred this market cycle because altcoins continue to bleed against Bitcoin, driven by low social interest and persistent quantitative tightening, mirroring the 2019 market dynamics.

• Alt season has not occurred due to altcoins bleeding against Bitcoin and low retail social interest.

• The current market strongly parallels the 2019 cycle, with Bitcoin outperforming during quantitative tightening.

• Expect Bitcoin dominance to rise and alt Bitcoin pairs to hit 0.25 before any potential altcoin recovery or market shift.

Alt season has not happened this cycle, with altcoins consistently underperforming Bitcoin since 2021, a trend evident in their never reaching historical range lows of 0.25 relative to Bitcoin. This phenomenon is largely attributed to low retail social interest in crypto and the ongoing quantitative tightening, which has kept liquidity concentrated in Bitcoin. The current market conditions closely resemble the 2019 rally, where Bitcoin surged while altcoins declined against it.

Altcoin Underperformance

• 00:00:41 Altcoins have been continuously losing value relative to Bitcoin since 2021, and alt Bitcoin pairs recently hit a new low of 0.29. A significant alt season has historically only occurred when alt Bitcoin pairs reached 0.25, a level not yet observed in the current cycle, which explains the lack of a widespread altcoin rally.

• 00:02:37 Periods of low social interest in crypto, as measured by YouTube subscribers and views, and Twitter followers, correlate with declining alt Bitcoin pairs. With numerous altcoins in existence, there isn't enough liquidity to sustain broad altcoin rallies in the absence of significant retail interest, leading to only a few selected alts performing well.

2019 Cycle Comparison

• 00:03:44 The current market cycle closely mirrors the 2019 rally, where Bitcoin saw substantial gains while altcoins dropped against it, even though Bitcoin was skyrocketing. This comparison is rooted in experiencing the 2019 bull market firsthand, which demonstrated Bitcoin's outperformance during similar conditions.

• 00:05:35 Further evidence for the 2019 comparison is that both the 2019 Bitcoin rally and the current cycle's Bitcoin rally have occurred entirely during periods of quantitative tightening. This parallel suggests Bitcoin will continue to lead, with its dominance likely increasing until quantitative tightening ends in December.

Monetary Policy Impact

• 00:03:17 The continuation of quantitative tightening (QT), which is set to end in December, is a significant factor in the lack of alt season. Last cycle, alt Bitcoin pairs bottomed when QT ended, but this did not immediately spark an alt season; it only occurred when retail interest eventually returned.

• 00:06:59 While quantitative easing (QE) returning is expected to prompt a bounce in alt Bitcoin pairs, it might not invalidate the four-year cycle. Historically, Bitcoin experienced a short-term downtrend after QE began last cycle before moving up, suggesting a similar dynamic could unfold in 2026, potentially without a significant 'euphoria phase'.

Bitcoin Dominance & Future Outlook

• 00:10:02 The consistent rise in Bitcoin dominance indicates that retail investors have not returned this cycle, leading to Bitcoin taking liquidity from the altcoin market. This strategy allows Bitcoin to maintain high price levels, similar to how it sustained itself above $10,000 in 2019 by drawing liquidity from alts.

• 00:10:49 Bitcoin dominance is projected to continue rising at least until early December, pushing alt Bitcoin pairs down to their historical range lows of 0.25. Reaching this 0.25 level for alt Bitcoin pairs could precede Bitcoin falling below its bull market support band, potentially ushering in a bear market in 2026 after QE begins.