Bitcoin & Crypto Are Struggling... [Here's What You NEED To Know]

Despite recent market trauma and altcoin underperformance, the broader macro environment indicates bullish conditions and returning liquidity, suggesting a potential future recovery for crypto, with Bitcoin possibly following gold's lead.

• Bullish macro conditions are setting the stage for a potential crypto recovery despite current underperformance.

• Bitcoin's price movements often follow gold, suggesting a possible target of $150k by year-end or early next year.

• Most altcoins are extremely risky and have underperformed, requiring careful trading rather than long-term holding.

The cryptocurrency market, especially altcoins, is currently experiencing significant struggles and 'trauma,' while traditional assets like stocks and gold are performing well. However, global macro conditions are becoming increasingly bullish, with central banks easing, the U.S. economy re-accelerating, and liquidity returning to markets. This favorable macro setup suggests that crypto may eventually see a strong recovery, though it is currently lagging due to recent events.

Macro Bullish Sentiment

• 00:01:29 Despite crypto's current struggles, the broader macro setup is described as 'extremely bullish.' The majority of global central banks are in easing mode, the U.S. economy shows signs of re-acceleration with rising ISM and PMI, and liquidity is returning to markets. These conditions, which have historically favored risk assets, are expected to eventually trickle down to cryptocurrencies, even as traditional stock markets are already 'ripping'.

Bitcoin's Price Outlook

• 00:04:43 Bitcoin tends to follow gold's price movements with an 80 to 100-day lag; with gold reaching Fibonacci resistance, a top for gold could precede a Bitcoin top around $150,000 in December or January. Current indicators like the 'Bitcoin heater' suggest the market is nearer to a bottom, with upside volatility expected next, although Bitcoin is precariously defending the 200-day EMA and needs to hold the 50-week EMA at around $100,000 to avoid significant short-term trouble.

• 00:09:07 Ethereum faces several structural problems despite recent buying sprees from figures like Tom Lee. A long-time Ethereum developer criticized the ecosystem for not fostering equal opportunity, claiming most successful projects are backed by a small circle of VCs and depend on relationships with Vitalik. Additionally, the Ethereum Foundation is perceived as failing to support projects built on its own blockchain, which undermines its long-term health, leading to a bearish trend with falling peaks and consistent rejections at the 20-day EMA.

Altcoin Underperformance & Risk

• 00:13:08 Altcoins are generally performing much worse than major cryptocurrencies, with many showing downtrends, lower highs, and rejections at key moving averages. While some, like Zcash, exhibit relative strength and could offer interesting entry points for traders, most altcoins are considered 'dog shit' and have severely punished holders who had 'conviction' or held fundamentally good projects this cycle. The market's current bearish regime emphasizes shorting at rejections of the 20-day EMA, highlighting the high risk and cutthroat nature of altcoin investing.

• 00:39:53 Meme coins, which are pure speculation vehicles, do not solve any 'real problems' in the way Bitcoin offers a digital store of value or Zcash provides private money. The broader crypto market solves issues like frictionless money transfers and on-chain financial markets, but the vast majority of tokens lack fundamental utility. Investing in altcoins carries extreme risk, often involving massive overvaluations at launch and significant losses, requiring investors to be prepared for substantial downside volatility and to manage risks carefully by not investing more than they are willing to lose.