Bitcoin Market Cycles

Bitcoin typically operates on a four-year market cycle with major tops occurring in the fourth quarter of post-halving years, a pattern observed historically in both Bitcoin and broader markets like the S&P 500.

• Bitcoin's market tops consistently align with a four-year cycle, historically in Q4 of post-halving years.

• The four-year cycle is a broader market phenomenon, not exclusive to Bitcoin's halving events.

• Prioritize Bitcoin holdings and monitor the 50-week moving average for signs of a market top.

Bitcoin's price movements consistently follow a four-year cycle, with market tops historically recorded in Q4 of post-halving years. While some speculate that 'this time is different,' it is prudent to consider the continuation of this established cycle. Evidence suggests the four-year cycle is not solely tied to Bitcoin's halving but is a broader market phenomenon, observed in traditional markets for decades.

Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle

• 00:01:04 Bitcoin generally operates under a four-year market cycle, characterized by major market tops consistently occurring in the fourth quarter of every post-halving year. This pattern has been observed in Q4 of 2013, 2017, and 2021, suggesting a potential continuation in Q4 of 2025 if the historical trend holds. This cycle's longevity in Bitcoin's history prompts consideration that it might continue to play out as it has before, despite discussions about whether current conditions make 'this time different.'

Broader Market Cycles

• 00:02:27 The four-year cycle is arguably not unique to Bitcoin or its halving events, as similar patterns have been identified in traditional markets like the S&P 500 dating back to the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. Major market cycle lows in the S&P 500 have historically occurred approximately every four years, often at the end of a midterm year. This suggests that the four-year cycle is a pre-existing market phenomenon that Bitcoin conveniently aligns with due to its four-year halving schedule.

Current Cycle Analysis

• 00:05:05 Based on historical patterns, a bear market for Bitcoin is anticipated in 2026, with a macro low expected in 2026, meaning the market cycle top will likely occur in 2025. While some believe the top may already be in, many peak indicators developed in prior cycles, such as the 'terminal price' of $281,000 or the NBRB Z-score spiking above 6, have not yet triggered. The perceived length of the current cycle, when measured from the low in November 2022, is comparable to prior cycles, offering some optimism for further upside.

Navigating Market Volatility

• 00:13:36 In uncertain market conditions, maintaining a crypto portfolio primarily in Bitcoin is advisable, as Bitcoin's movements dictate the broader altcoin market. An 'alt season' where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin is unlikely unless Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs; otherwise, altcoin-to-Bitcoin pairs may continue to devalue. Confirmation of a market top would likely be signaled by two consecutive weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, currently near $102,000, and until this occurs, a degree of optimism for another rally remains justified.