Stop Waiting for the Crash (This Bull Run Isn’t Over Yet)

Despite widespread fears of an impending crash, current market indicators, Fed dovishness, and historical bull market data suggest the current bullish trend is far from over and likely to extend for years.

• Fear of an 'overdue' market crash is not supported by recent corrections.

• A dovish Fed and strong Russell 2000 indicate a broadening and sustainable market rally.

• Current bull market length and gains are below historical averages, suggesting significant room for further growth.

Many expect a major bear market, but recent market corrections, a rally broadening beyond large-cap tech, and a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve indicate a sustained bullish outlook for equities and correlated crypto markets. The idea of an 'overdue' bear market is unfounded given recent history, and this bull run shows potential for significant further expansion based on historical averages.

Market Crash Overdue?

• 00:00:32 The notion of an 'overdue' bear market is misleading, as the S&P 500 has experienced three significant corrections of 19%, 24%, and 34% in the past five years. These downturns, one lasting almost a year and another occurring this year, contradict the idea that the market is due for a major crash. Such recent history suggests the market has already weathered substantial corrections, making the 'overdue' argument inconsistent with actual performance.

Russell 2000's Bullish Signal

• 00:01:30 The Russell 2000, comprising 2000 smaller market cap US companies, is showing significant bullish developments, with hedge funds closing short positions and a potential short squeeze driving the index to all-time highs. This rotation into small-cap stocks signals increased confidence in US growth, easing liquidity, and a broadening market rally beyond the S&P 500 and Magnificent 7, suggesting a more sustainable overall uptrend. This trend is also historically correlated with 'risk on' sentiment, benefiting cryptocurrency markets beyond Bitcoin.

Fed's Dovish Shift & Rate Cuts

• 00:03:44 Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent comments indicate a significant dovish pivot, with an implied end to quantitative tightening and impending rate cuts. Experts like Paul Tudor Jones anticipate the Fed funds rate to drop to 2.5-2.75% within a year, creating a 'compelling story for higher equity prices.' Polymarket users are also assigning a 95% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the end of the current month, reinforcing expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy that supports market expansion.

Bull Market Length & Outlook

• 00:05:42 The current equity bull run, having delivered 83% returns over three years, is not necessarily over, as the average of the last 11 bull runs delivered 191% returns and lasted considerably longer. Historically, bull runs hitting the three-year mark, like this one, have typically extended for many more years, with the shortest lasting 5 years and the longest 13 years, providing hundreds of percent in additional gains. This context suggests the current rally, even with recent highs in various assets, has significant room for further extension over several years.