Death of the 4-Year Cycle 🔥 Bitcoin Just Changed Forever

Bitcoin's price action has defied historical four-year cycles, signaling a 'this time is different' scenario with extended bull market potential driven by institutional accumulation and global M2 supply growth.

• Bitcoin's bull market has extended beyond its historical four-year cycle, indicating a significant shift in its market dynamics.

• Institutional accumulation, particularly by corporate 'dolphins,' is a key driver for Bitcoin's sustained growth.

• The debasement trade, fueled by increasing global M2 money supply and quietly rising inflation targets, continues to bolster Bitcoin's value proposition.

Bitcoin has officially broken past its historical four-year cycle, exhibiting less volatility and a longer duration than previous bull markets, with a current price in an accumulation zone. This shift is supported by significant institutional buying, particularly from 'dolphins' (companies rather than retail investors) accumulating Bitcoin. The broader economic context, including increasing global M2 money supply and quietly shifting inflation targets, reinforces the debasement trade, making assets like Bitcoin increasingly attractive.

Death of the 4-Year Cycle

• 00:02:46 Bitcoin has now officially surpassed the elapsed time from its cycle low to cycle high seen in previous bull markets, extending beyond the typical 1060 days. This means Bitcoin has exceeded both the historical mean and is on the verge of surpassing the 2017 cycle length, demonstrating a new pattern of longer duration and reduced volatility compared to previous cycles, fundamentally altering its historical behavior.

Bitcoin Accumulation & Growth

• 00:04:24 Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation zone, marking a historically opportune time to buy, despite being late in what would traditionally be a bull cycle. 'Dolphins' (entities holding 100-1000 Bitcoin), identified as small to large businesses rather than retail investors, are actively stacking sats and have added 700,000 Bitcoin in 2025, suggesting the bull cycle is far from over and indicating a shift in the type of market participants.

Real World Assets & AI

• 00:11:39 The tokenization of real-world assets is accelerating, with JP Morgan now lending against Bitcoin and Ethereum for institutions. Tesla is highlighted not as a car company but as a leader in real-world AI, demonstrating massive growth and high margins in its energy business and pioneering advanced AI reasoning capabilities in its Full Self-Driving technology, leveraging a neural world simulator for both vehicles and Optimus robots.

Debasement Trade & Inflation

• 00:19:51 The 'debasement trade' is gaining mainstream attention, as evidenced by record Google searches for the term, reflecting growing awareness of how money printing erodes purchasing power. The global M2 money supply's slow but steady increase directly correlates with Bitcoin's price movements, suggesting continued growth for Bitcoin as central banks quietly shift inflation targets, with a 3% rate now effectively becoming the new goal despite earlier 2% targets.