Bitcoin & Crypto Mid Cycle Reset

Despite recent pullbacks, Bitcoin and crypto are undergoing a mid-cycle reset, with analysts predicting a bullish market surge through the end of the year and into 2026, driven by normalizing leverage, rising on-chain activity, and favorable macro conditions, although some altcoins face continued bearish trends.

• Bitcoin's current dip is a 'mid-cycle reset' with strong bullish indicators and a fair value of $156,000.

• Major market catalysts like trade deals and cooling inflation are expected to drive a strong rally through year-end and into 2026.

• Strategic profit-taking, particularly on altcoins, is a valid approach, considering individual financial goals and market volatility.

The current market correction in Bitcoin and crypto is identified as a 'mid-cycle reset' rather than a bear market, supported by indicators like normalized leverage and increasing on-chain activity. Experts predict a 'Goldilocks situation' for macro conditions, leading to a strong market rally from November into the end of the year and potentially extending to 2026. However, investors are cautioned about potential market volatility and the need for strategic profit-taking, especially with altcoins that have underperformed.

Bitcoin's Market Outlook

• 00:01:00 Lark VanX and Quinn Thompson of Lekker Capital view October's Bitcoin pullback as a mid-cycle reset, not a bear market, citing normalized leverage, rising on-chain activity, and liquidity. Equinemetrics suggests Bitcoin is trading at a 31% discount relative to its Nasdaq-implied fair value of $156,000, indicating a likely future convergence as the gap narrows. The market has seen hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin sold by long-time holders, which has contributed to its current price levels.

Technical Analysis & Momentum

• 00:03:44 Bitcoin is currently bouncing off the 200-day EMA, a critical support line that the price needs to hold above, ideally reclaiming the 20-day EMA around $112,000. Technical indicators show the Relative Strength Index (RSI) starting to break out beyond its control line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is nearing a bullish crossover, signaling a potential medium momentum shift soon. Similar patterns are observed in some altcoins like Ethereum and Solana, which also need to break above their 20-day EMAs to escape bearish downtrends.

External Market Influences

• 00:04:32 Geopolitical events, particularly potential trade restrictions by the Trump administration against China, cause significant, albeit often temporary, volatility in equity markets, but these events are increasingly dismissed as political posturing. Bullish catalysts for the market include a likely US-China trade deal before November, cooling CPI data, healthy corporate earnings, and the imminent end of the government shutdown. Copper, known as 'Dr. Copper' due to its economic indicator status, is showing upward movement, which generally signifies a healthy economy and bodes well for risk-on assets.

Investment Strategy & Altcoins

• 00:39:00 Individual investors, especially seniors, should consider their personal financial situation when deciding whether to take profits from Bitcoin holdings, even if it means selling a portion of their 'hodl' position. While Bitcoin maximalists advocate holding indefinitely, a 5x return on Bitcoin can be life-changing for many, and it is acceptable to sell some. For altcoins, the market has been particularly rough, but an 'Others versus BTC' chart shows a potential MACD bullish crossover, which historically ignited significant altcoin seasons, suggesting an 'extremely explosive' setup if buying interest returns.