Harry Enten Is the Best Part of CNN

Despite Republicans controlling both houses of Congress during a government shutdown, Democrats are surprisingly receiving more blame and seeing a decline in their generic congressional ballot standing, while Republicans are gaining popularity, partially due to public perception of Democratic ineptitude in governance and their stance on healthcare for illegal aliens.

• Democrats are in their worst generic congressional ballot position in 20 years during a Republican presidency's midterm.

• The government shutdown surprisingly increased Republican popularity and net approval, while Democrats received the blame.

• Democrats are perceived as inept at governing and are losing public support due to unpopular stances, such as demanding healthcare for illegal aliens.

During a government shutdown, conventional wisdom suggested Republicans, controlling Congress, would face public disapproval. However, data from CNN's Harry Enten shows a surprising reversal: Republicans are gaining popularity, and Democrats are shouldering the blame. This shift is attributed to Democrats being perceived as incompetent at running the government and their insistence on including healthcare for illegal aliens in spending bills, a position that is unpopular even among some Democratic voters.

Generic Congressional Ballot Shift

• 00:00:00 The generic congressional ballot, typically favorable to Democrats, shows a significant shift; Democrats are currently only three points ahead, marking their worst position in 20 years during a Republican presidency's midterm. This decline is observed even before the recent shutdown, indicating a broader trend of weakening Democratic support and a more advantageous historical position for Republicans on this metric.

• 00:03:53 Democrats are in their weakest position on the generic congressional ballot in 20 years during a Republican president's midterm, currently only three points ahead compared to an 11-point lead during Trump's first term. This unfavorable shift is not new, predating the shutdown, and places Democrats in a historically poor standing for them, while Republicans are not losing ground on this metric.

Shutdown Blame and Republican Gains

• 00:00:38 Despite Republicans controlling both the House and Senate, public opinion surveys indicate they have not been harmed by the government shutdown; in fact, their overall brand popularity is up two points, and net approval ratings for Republicans in Congress are up five points. This surprising outcome, noted by CNN's Harry Enten, shows a complete reversal from expectations, with the Republican brand actually improving.

• 00:01:47 Contrary to expectations that Republicans would be blamed for the government shutdown, public sentiment indicates Democrats are taking the blame, leading to Republicans making gains in popularity. CNN data shows the Republican Party's overall brand up two points and Republican approval in Congress up five points post-shutdown, defying the assumption that being in charge of both chambers would hurt them.

Democratic Ineptitude and Unpopular Stances

• 00:07:21 Democrats are facing blame for the government shutdown and the lapse in SNAP benefits, despite being historically associated with large government and social safety nets. Even federal employee unions (American Federation of Government Employees) are calling on Democrats to reopen the government, highlighting a significant political misstep and public perception of Democrats as inept at governing.

• 00:08:18 Democrats are being blamed for the government shutdown and the lapse in SNAP benefits, with public data indicating a perception of their ineptitude in running government, despite their traditional association with big government. The public's scrutiny over the shutdown length has revealed a contentious demand by Democrats for healthcare for 'illegal aliens,' a stance that is not supported by the vast majority of voters and contributes to their declining popularity.

Republican Strategy and Public Respect

• 00:10:29 Republicans are advised to 'own' their conservative positions, such as wanting no SNAP benefits and referencing Christian and European heritage, rather than trying to moderate. Directness on issues like gun control and welfare reform, even when controversial, earns more public respect and is perceived as a winning strategy, as seen by the current shift in public opinion during the shutdown.

• 00:11:54 Republicans are encouraged to directly articulate their core beliefs, even if they are seen as unpopular, such as opposing SNAP benefits or advocating for specific cultural values, rather than diluting their message for broader appeal. This 'owning it' approach, being honest about what they believe, is presented as a more effective strategy for earning public respect and achieving political success.