The Greatest Macro Trade of All Time: Why Crypto & Gold Are Winning | Raoul Pal ft Dan Morehead

The pervasive debasement of fiat currency by governments worldwide is driving significant investment into scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin, making it the 'greatest macro trade of all time'.

• Government currency debasement is a persistent, overarching macro issue.

• Gold and Bitcoin are primary beneficiaries of the 'debasement trade' due to scarcity.

• The current investment landscape presents a simple, inevitable, and highly correlated 'macro trade'.

Ongoing currency debasement and persistent inflation are pushing investors towards scarce assets such as gold and Bitcoin. Major financial institutions like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are now acknowledging this 'debasement trade,' a concept discussed in crypto for over a decade. This macro phenomenon is considered the single most dominant factor in current investing, leading to strong correlations between global liquidity, NASDAQ, and Bitcoin.

Currency Debasement Trend

• 00:00:00 The continuous debasement of paper money by governments, coupled with sticky inflation and low productivity increases, forces investors to seek refuge in scarce assets. This 'debasement trade' has seen dramatic flows into gold and Bitcoin, a trend now recognized even by major financial institutions, although it has been a topic in crypto circles for over a decade. This widespread money printing is identified as the core macro issue, ensuring its continuation.

The Greatest Macro Trade

• 00:01:33 The current economic climate, driven by currency debasement, represents the 'greatest macro trade of all time' due to its simplicity and inevitability. A total global liquidity index shows a 97.5% correlation with the NASDAQ since 2012, and about 90% with Bitcoin, indicating that one dominant macro factor now underpins all investing. Holding crypto for four to five years yields a 90% probability of profit, making it a compelling, predictable investment despite potential short-term volatility.