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Lark Davis
10:0210/30/25

Crypto Altcoins Have Never Been This Oversold [Massive Opportunity Ahead]

TLDR

Altcoins, particularly those outside the top 10, are showing historical oversold signs against Ethereum and Bitcoin, suggesting a significant buying opportunity for short-term profit flips.

Takeways

Altcoins are at historical oversold levels against Ethereum and Bitcoin, indicating a strong buying opportunity.

Technical indicators like RSI and MACD suggest a major momentum shift and potential upswing in the near future.

Positioning now, before a potential Q4 breakout, aligns with favorable risk-reward for significant altcoin gains.

Altcoins have endured a brutal year, but current market conditions indicate a potential reversal, with many 'degen altcoins' flashing historical oversold signals across multiple charts and timeframes. These oversold valuations, especially when priced against Ethereum and Bitcoin, suggest that the greater reward-to-risk lies in going long on altcoins, positioning investors for a potential major momentum shift and significant price moves in the coming months.

Historical Oversold Valuations

00:02:25 When compared to Ethereum, the market capitalization of 'others' (altcoins outside the top 10) is currently about half the size of Ethereum's, reaching historical oversold valuations that have only occurred about seven times in crypto history. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for 'Others vs. ETH' has printed its lowest reading ever, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a bullish crossover attempt, signaling a potential trend shift from extreme bearish sentiment.

Others vs. Bitcoin Outlook

00:04:39 The 'others versus Bitcoin' chart presents a similar narrative, with altcoins currently representing about 12% of Bitcoin's market cap, hitting historically low valuations against Bitcoin following a recent flash crash. Despite the RSI and MACD not appearing as strong as on the ETH chart, the risk-reward assessment still heavily favors taking a long position on altcoins over shorting them in these oversold conditions.

Optimal Time for Positioning

00:06:12 The current period, with Bitcoin dominance still high and the Altcoin Season Index showing a transition out of Bitcoin season, is considered an opportune time for positioning in altcoins. This strategy aims to capitalize on potential market upswings in late Q4 and early Q1, rather than waiting until altcoin season is in full swing, when selling would be more appropriate.

Potential Timeframes for Upswing

00:06:45 An 'extended cycle' is anticipated, which might make timing difficult, but a coiling symmetrical triangle on the 'others' chart since December 2024 suggests a potential breakout in Q4. A hard bullish crossover on the daily MACD indicates the start of a major upswing, which could lead to a local top by early December, possibly extending into early January, offering a window for dramatic price movements in the highly volatile and smaller altcoin market.