Bitcoin: Bear Market Resistance Band

Bitcoin is currently in a bear market, characterized by a 'bear market resistance band,' and is projected to experience further slight declines until the summer of 2026, potentially sweeping prior lows.

• Bitcoin is in a bear market, with the bull market support band now acting as resistance.

• Bear markets are normal, expect slightly lower lows and highs until summer 2026, potentially sweeping prior lows.

• Shift focus from altcoins to harder assets like gold and silver for better valuation insights.

Bitcoin is likely in a bear market, indicated by its rejection from the 'bull market support band,' which now acts as a 'bear market resistance band.' Cycles consistently last around 1060 days, suggesting the recent bull market has ended. Altcoins are not a good investment in this environment, as Bitcoin's performance typically dictates their direction, with a shift towards harder assets like gold and silver observed.

Bitcoin Cycle Length

• 00:00:58 Bitcoin market cycles show remarkable consistency, with the most recent cycle lasting 1,062 days, aligning closely with the previous two cycles of 1,059 and 1,068 days respectively. This consistent duration from the bottom provides strong evidence that the past bull market has concluded, placing Bitcoin firmly in a bear market phase.

• 00:01:26 Recognizing a bear market is crucial, as the market should be traded as it is, not as desired. This bearish outlook suggests altcoins are not a favorable investment in the short term, as most tend to drop when Bitcoin enters a bear market, despite some individual exceptions. The 'bull market support band' transforms into a 'bear market resistance band' once rejected, signaling a period of downward pressure.

Bear Market Characteristics

• 00:02:42 Bear markets for Bitcoin are a normal occurrence, frequently aligning with midterm years such as 2014, 2018, and 2022. The current bear market is expected to feature slightly lower lows and slightly lower highs, without the dramatic drops seen previously when measured from the peak. Despite this, Bitcoin has demonstrated relative resilience in holding up better over time compared to past bear markets.

• 00:03:23 The duration since Bitcoin last experienced a 50% drop is setting new records, indicating a potential correction is overdue. Following a 2019-style bear market, which saw Bitcoin top on apathy rather than euphoria with slightly lower lows and highs, a significant target for Bitcoin is a sweep of its prior low. This pattern suggests a likely return to the lows from April 2025.

Shift to Hard Assets

• 00:04:43 The market is currently experiencing a notable shift towards harder assets, with metals like gold and silver appreciating significantly. This movement away from altcoins and towards more tangible assets coincides with Bitcoin's transition into a bear market. This trend reinforces the expectation of continued slightly lower lows and highs for Bitcoin leading into the summer of 2026.

• 00:05:13 While Bitcoin may experience rallies, a sweep of the prior low from April 2025 is a very likely outcome. When valued against gold and silver, Bitcoin is already well below its April 2025 lows against gold and is at its November 2022 lows against silver. Measuring asset performance in US dollars can be misleading due to the dollar's declining purchasing power, making comparisons against gold or Bitcoin for altcoins more insightful.

Valuation and Outlook

• 00:06:13 Valuing assets against gold rather than the US dollar provides a clearer picture, as the dollar's purchasing power is asymptotically approaching zero. This cycle saw Bitcoin sweep prior highs against gold before heading back down, confirming its bearish trend. The current 'bull market support band' has become the 'bear market resistance band' until a reversal is definitively proven.

• 00:06:47 The conviction remains that Bitcoin is in a bear market and will likely revisit the lows from April 2025. This assessment, though not what many investors desire to hear, is presented as an objective view of the current market conditions. The importance of trading the market that exists, not the market one wishes for, is emphasized.