Bitcoin: Midterm Year Returns

Bitcoin historically forms a local low in late February and rallies into early March during midterm years, followed by a cool-off into April and May.

• Bitcoin consistently forms a February low and rallies into early March during midterm years.

• Short-term rallies are often temporary and do not signal a new sustained bull market in midterm years.

• Historical data advises caution against chasing rallies, as prices typically decline into April and May.

Bitcoin's price movements in midterm years consistently show a pattern of finding a local low in February, followed by a rally into early March, before typically experiencing a correction as the year progresses. This pattern is evident across multiple past midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022) and suggests that current short-term rallies should not be mistaken for the start of a new bull market. Investors should remain realistic and not chase these temporary rallies, as they often lead to lower highs and subsequent lower lows during a midterm year.

Historical Price Patterns

• 00:01:07 Bitcoin's price history in midterm years, specifically 2014, 2018, and 2022, demonstrates a consistent pattern: a low forms in early to late February, followed by a rally into early March. For instance, local highs were observed on March 2nd, 3rd, and 5th in these respective years, occurring after the February lows.

Average Midterm Behavior

• 00:03:18 On average, Bitcoin's year-to-date ROI in prior midterm years shows a low around the 55th-56th day of the year (late February) and then rallies into the 62nd day (early March). Despite individual variations, this general pattern of renewed strength into early March, followed by a decline later in the year, is reliably observed, with Bitcoin often trading within one standard deviation of the average historical ROI.

Market Narratives vs. Reality

• 00:04:46 Current market rallies often draw in investors based on transient news narratives, which are frequently used to explain price movements despite not being the underlying cause. Many 'permabulls' who did not pivot during the bear market are now desperate for any rally to signify a new bull run, but historical patterns suggest such rallies in midterm years are typically short-lived and do not lead to durable all-time highs.

Future Outlook and Caution

• 00:08:35 The historical pattern indicates that after the early March rally, Bitcoin's price typically 'bleeds out' into April and May. Even if Bitcoin were to rise to levels like 74K, which was a support level in April 2025, it would likely serve as resistance, aligning with the average year-to-date ROI topping out in early March. Investors are advised to remain level-headed, recognize these local tops, and avoid chasing rallies that often result in lower highs before eventual lower lows in a midterm year.