Bitcoin: Wake Me Up When September Ends

Bitcoin typically experiences a period of consolidation and sideways movement in September, especially in post-halving years, often testing key support levels before potentially rallying in Q4.

• September often brings sideways movement and consolidation for Bitcoin in post-halving years.

• Key support levels include the 21-week EMA and the 50-week moving average.

• Current trends align with historical patterns, suggesting a potential Q4 rebound after September's consolidation.

Historically, Bitcoin demonstrates a pattern of slow movement and consolidation in September, particularly in post-halving years, frequently testing its bull market support band. While a weekly close below the 50-week moving average would necessitate a re-evaluation, the current behavior aligns with past cycles, suggesting a potential rebound in the fourth quarter. This period is often characterized by Bitcoin dominance bottoming out and liquidity returning to Bitcoin.

September Bitcoin Trends

• 00:00:23 Bitcoin commonly experiences periods of minimal movement, drawdowns, or corrections during September, a recurring pattern observed in post-halving years. This behavior involves testing the 21-week EMA and the bull market support band, which has been consistent in 2013, 2017, 2020, and is expected in 2025.

Technical Support Levels

• 00:01:53 The expectation for September is for Bitcoin to test the bull market support band, specifically the 20-week and 21-week EMAs. If these levels fail, the 50-week moving average acts as the next critical support, with a weekly close below it (around $100k) being the threshold for a potential shift in the bullish outlook.

Cycle Comparison and Outlook

• 00:02:47 The current Bitcoin price action is playing out similarly to 2020, with a Q1 low, subsequent rallies, sideways movement, and two-week rallies followed by dumps. While there might be continued weakness for another week or two, the expectation is for Bitcoin dominance to bottom out and liquidity to flow back, setting up a stronger finish to the cycle in Q4.