Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Bitcoin's price action in September is testing the bull market support band, with historical patterns suggesting a potential rally to new highs in October if it holds this level.

• Bitcoin is testing the bull market support band in September.

• Historical patterns suggest potential rallies to new highs in October.

• Maintaining current levels is vital for a strong Q4 rally.

Bitcoin is currently testing the bull market support band, a common occurrence in September of post-halving years. Historically, Bitcoin has found lows in September before rallying, with potential breakthroughs to new highs often occurring in October. Maintaining this level is crucial for a Q4 rally; otherwise, a longer repair period might lead to a muted rally.

Bull Market Support Band

• 00:00:06 Bitcoin is currently testing the bull market support band, a common pattern in September of post-halving years, reminiscent of September 2017 and 2021. Historically, Bitcoin often finds a high in August and a low in September, with potential rallies in late September or October. The current assessment is that Bitcoin might follow similar patterns, potentially breaking through to new highs in October.

Historical Price Action

• 00:01:31 Analysis of Bitcoin's price action in 2017, 2021, and 2020 reveals that after finding lows in September, Bitcoin often rallies, with new cycle highs potentially occurring in October. The expectation is that the August high could be taken out sometime in October, depending on whether the path involves a straight move up or a brief pullback first.

Key Moving Averages

• 00:03:16 The 50-week moving average is currently around $98K and continues to rise, while Bitcoin remains above the 20-week SMA and the bull market support band range of 109 to 111. Holding above this level is crucial for a potential Q4 rally to new highs, as failing to do so and dropping to the 50-week moving average could lead to a longer repair period and a potentially muted rally.

Bitcoin Dominance

• 00:05:33 Bitcoin dominance often forms a low in September, potentially mirroring patterns observed in 2020 and 2017 before rallying. Despite some losing faith, a final Bitcoin dominance rally is still anticipated, likely becoming more evident after rate cuts in late September and into October.