Ethereum: Dubious Speculation

Ethereum is expected to reach new all-time highs above $5,000 within a few months, likely after it tags its 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) or consolidates until the EMA catches up.

• Ethereum is expected to achieve new all-time highs, potentially above $5,000, within two to three months.

• A key catalyst for this rally will likely be Ethereum interacting with its 21-week EMA, either by dropping to it or consolidating sideways until it catches up.

• The current period for Ethereum is a consolidation phase, similar to previous cycles, preceding a final rally to its market cycle top.

Ethereum is predicted to achieve new all-time highs, potentially surpassing $5,000, within the next two to three months, despite current consolidation. This rally is anticipated to occur after Ethereum's price interacts with its 21-week EMA, either through a direct touch or by moving sideways until the EMA ascends. Historically, Ethereum's market cycle tops often follow Bitcoin's, suggesting further upward potential for ETH in the current cycle.

Ethereum Investment Strategy

• 00:00:38 The most successful strategy for Ethereum is to buy when its price is low ('goes home') and then gradually sell off portions as it rises, especially later in the year. This approach aligns with following Ethereum's risk metric, which currently indicates an early phase of what typically precedes market cycle tops, such as the 0.7 risk level.

Path to New All-Time Highs

• 00:01:45 Ethereum is projected to reach new all-time highs within a few months, following a previously predicted pattern of a pullback, a rally to a new high that is not durable on the first attempt, and then a correction. This initial rejection near the all-time high is rational, as many long-term holders from 2021 would sell to break even. A durable new high requires patience from investors.

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin Cycles

• 00:04:11 Ethereum often puts in its market cycle top after Bitcoin, as observed in previous cycles (e.g., Ethereum peaked a month after Bitcoin in 2017-2018 and 2021). The current cycle still has time to go based on Bitcoin's ROI metrics, and while Ethereum recently hit a local all-time high after Bitcoin, a further push to new highs is expected. Major Bitcoin peaks historically occur in Q4 of post-halving years, which implies further potential for Ethereum too, unless Bitcoin closes two weekly candles below its 50-week moving average.

Altcoins and Ethereum Liquidity Flow

• 00:07:05 Altcoins typically rally against Ethereum after Ethereum makes an all-time high, as observed when altcoins bottomed against Ethereum around August 18th. This altcoin rally is expected to continue until Ethereum tags its 21-week EMA, at which point Ethereum is likely to reclaim liquidity from the altcoin market. This pattern has historically occurred in late September or early October in post-halving years.

21-Week EMA as a Catalyst

• 00:09:09 For Ethereum to achieve durable new all-time highs beyond just a 'wick,' it will likely need to interact with its 21-week EMA. This could involve a price drop to meet the EMA (currently around $3,600) or a sideways consolidation until the EMA rises to meet the current price, similar to past market behavior. This interaction is anticipated to provide the necessary 'fuel' for a significant rally to a market cycle top above $5,000, potentially reaching $6,000 or $7,000.