Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, consistently repeating historical patterns of price movements after bouncing off the bull market support band, reinforcing the idea of a market cycle top in Q4 of the post-halving year.

• Bitcoin's price movements align with historical post-halving patterns, reaching new all-time highs.

• Rising Bitcoin dominance indicates liquidity is flowing into Bitcoin, validating expected market movements.

• Monitor for weekly closes below the 50-week moving average as a key indicator for a market cycle top in Q4.

Bitcoin has achieved a new all-time high after following a historical pattern similar to 2020, involving a rally, a drop, and then a surge. The cryptocurrency consistently shows a high in August, a low in September, and a subsequent rally into a market cycle top in the post-halving year. While some time-based indicators suggest the current cycle is advanced, traditional euphoria indicators have not yet signaled a market top, leading to two potential scenarios: either a parabolic rally is still to come, or 'this time is different,' though the latter is viewed as unlikely.

Bitcoin's Repeating Patterns

• 00:00:48 Bitcoin consistently repeats specific price patterns, typically featuring a high around August, a low in September, and then a rally into a market cycle top in the post-halving year. This behavior, observed in 2013, 2017, and 2021, has again manifested, with Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high after a two-week rally, a two-week drop, and another rally from the bull market support band.

Bitcoin Dominance and Liquidity

• 00:02:22 Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, indicating that liquidity is flowing into Bitcoin, despite some questioning its pace. This sustained increase in dominance serves as a critical indicator, validating the expectation of new all-time highs in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year, as observed previously when the market recognizes Bitcoin's importance.

Market Cycle Top Indicators

• 00:03:14 Historically, all major Bitcoin market cycle tops have occurred in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year, emphasizing the importance of not becoming complacent as Q4 progresses. A key indicator to watch for a market top is a couple of weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, which is currently around $101,000, signaling the end of the cycle.

Current Cycle Status & Euphoria

• 00:08:28 While time-based indicators suggest the current Bitcoin cycle might be further along than many realize, traditional euphoria-based indicators, such as those related to new retail investor engagement and social risk, have not yet fired off. This dichotomy suggests either an extravagant parabolic rally is still pending or the current cycle is fundamentally different, with the former being the more anticipated outcome before a potential Q4 top.