The Crypto Bull & Bear Case For The End Of 2025

Bitcoin's future hinges on whether its traditional four-year cycle persists or if new institutional adoption and global liquidity will drive an extended bull market beyond 2025.

• Q4 historically favors Bitcoin, but the four-year cycle's relevance is debated.

• Institutional adoption and global liquidity from rate cuts could extend the bull market past 2025.

• Bearish indicators like decreased institutional buying and regulatory probes pose risks to market stability.

The crypto market faces a pivotal moment, with arguments for both a final leg up by late 2025, potentially aligning with historical four-year cycle peaks, and an extended bull run well into 2026. This extension would be driven by Bitcoin's maturation into a macro asset, fueled by institutional investment and increased global liquidity from central bank rate cuts. While some bearish signals exist, the overall sentiment leans towards continued growth, albeit with potential short-term pullbacks.

Traditional Cycle Outlook

• 00:00:32 Historically, Q4 has been Bitcoin's strongest quarter, with an average of nearly 80% gains since 2013. The four-year cycle theory suggests that cycle peaks typically occur 500 to 550 days after a Bitcoin halving. If this pattern holds true for the April 2024 halving, the market could see an explosive move culminating in a top around late October or November 2025, followed by a 'crypto winter'.

Extended Cycle Thesis

• 00:01:36 The idea of a dead four-year cycle is considered mega bullish, indicating Bitcoin has matured beyond retail-driven halving hype. Price action is increasingly influenced by global liquidity, ETFs, and institutional flows, turning Bitcoin into a macro asset class. Major players like BlackRock now attract capital from pension funds and wealth managers who disregard the rigid four-year cycle structure.

Impact of Rate Cuts

• 00:02:29 Anticipated central bank rate cuts, such as those from the Federal Reserve, are expected to inject significant liquidity into the market. Cheaper money typically flows into risk assets, including crypto, as safe bonds become less attractive. This 'risk on' environment could propel Bitcoin beyond current predictions, especially with multiple rate cuts on the horizon, potentially stretching the bull market phase.

Bearish Considerations

• 00:06:19 Despite bullish outlooks, a bear case suggests the four-year cycle might still be intact, leading to a market top around late 2025. Bearish signals include the OG Bitcoin Treasury Company strategy losing its 200-day EMA in September and a sharp decrease in institutional Bitcoin acquisitions, dropping from 64,000 BTC in July to 15,500 BTC in September. Additionally, US regulators are investigating potential insider trading in digital asset treasury companies, raising concerns about market stability.