Why Putin NEVER Wants War in Ukraine to End

Vladimir Putin prolongs the war in Ukraine not due to territorial dispute, but to fulfill his imperial vision for Russia, maintain his domestic power, reshape the global order, and sustain an war-dependent economy.

• Putin’s war aims to restore a Russian empire, viewing Ukraine as an integral part of Russia.

• Ending the war would jeopardize Putin's domestic power, alienating key pro-war factions and destabilizing the war-dependent economy.

• The conflict is used to challenge Western supremacy and strengthen Russia's ties with authoritarian allies, as Putin believes time is on Russia’s side.

The conflict in Ukraine is not merely a territorial dispute but a foundational crusade for Vladimir Putin to restore a Russian empire, viewing Ukraine as an inseparable part of Russia. Ending the war would shatter Putin's narrative, threaten his grip on power domestically by alienating hardline factions and the powerful Siloviki, and disrupt the war-fueled economy that benefits his inner circle. Putin believes time is on Russia's side, aiming to outlast Ukraine and Western resolve while leveraging diplomatic gestures to secure battlefield gains and maintain global relevance.

Putin's Imperial Ambition

• 00:00:35 To Vladimir Putin, the war is a 'crusade' to resurrect Russia's empire, fundamentally believing Ukraine has no legitimate right to exist independently and must remain part of 'Mother Russia.' This core belief was articulated in his July 2021 essay on the historical unity of Ukrainians and Russians, framing an independent Ukraine as an attack on Russia's survival. His decision to annex four Ukrainian provinces not fully conquered further complicates any potential peace, as Russia's demand for these territories became a core non-negotiable point.

Domestic Power & Support

• 00:02:37 Ending the war could lead to the downfall of Putin's political system, as it is crucial for his legacy as a leader orchestrating the 'rebirth of an empire.' A negotiated settlement resulting in an independent Ukraine would be seen as a devastating defeat, undermining his strongman image and alienating key domestic groups like hardline patriots and the 'Siloviki' (power brokers who have enriched themselves through the war economy). These factions, dependent on his continued rule and the war's profitability, could turn against him if he appears weak or yields to the West.

War-Fueled Economy

• 00:06:52 The war has become a lucrative enterprise within Russia, with increased military spending, higher soldier paychecks, and booming defense industries creating a new pro-war coalition. Military spending, reaching around 40% of the public budget in 2024, has artificially fueled economic growth and masked underlying issues, enabling Putin to flaunt impressive GDP growth figures despite sanctions. This war-dependent economic structure ensures loyalty and stability for Putin's regime, making peace a direct threat to the prosperity that sustains his power and benefits his inner circle of powerful families.

Global Order Reshaping

• 00:10:05 The conflict serves as a strategic tool for Putin to reshape the global order, weakening Western economies by forcing significant resource expenditure on Ukraine while strengthening Russia's alliances with authoritarian states like China, Iran, and North Korea. Russia uses its leverage in diplomatic talks to appear reasonable, but its 'peace offerings' are designed to be rejected, allowing it to blame Ukraine for the deadlock and justify continued military action. Putin believes Russia can outlast Ukraine and Western political will, leveraging Ukraine's vulnerabilities like smaller population, fewer weapons, and corruption.