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Unchained
55:1410/12/25

Crypto's Black Friday Was Its Largest Liquidation Ever. What the Hell Happened?

TLDR

The recent crypto Black Friday saw an unprecedented $19 billion liquidation event, largely due to extreme over-leveraging in altcoin perpetuals, systemic exchange auto-deleveraging, and a lack of market liquidity exacerbated by unexpected geopolitical trade announcements and the fragmented perp market.

Takeways

Crypto's 'Black Friday' saw $19 billion in liquidations, 10x worse than FTX.

Excessive altcoin leverage and geopolitical news triggered widespread auto-deleveraging across exchanges.

Exchanges must re-evaluate ADL policies and internal market maker roles to protect traders and ensure market stability.

A 'Black Friday' event in crypto led to a staggering $19 billion in liquidations, a magnitude described as ten times worse than the FTX collapse. This market chaos was primarily driven by geopolitical trade tariff announcements that triggered a cascade of liquidations on over-leveraged altcoin perpetuals, particularly affecting newer alts with limited market makers. The incident exposed critical vulnerabilities in exchange infrastructure and liquidity management, forcing widespread auto-deleveraging across platforms, often at the expense of traders.

Market Collapse Triggers

00:01:25 The 'Black Friday' crypto crash, resulting in $19 billion in liquidations within 20 minutes, was immediately preceded by China's ban on rare earth material exports, seen as a retaliatory measure against US chip bans. This was followed by a US announcement of 100% tariffs on China, triggering a rapid Bitcoin price drop from $122,000 to $104,000. Suspiciously, large 'hyperliquid whales' placed hundreds of millions in Bitcoin short positions just 30 minutes before the tariff announcement, suggesting potential insider knowledge.

00:05:46 Many altcoins, including Adam and Solana, experienced drastic drops, with Adam nearly reaching zero and Solana falling by 40%, primarily on perpetual order books rather than spot markets. This was due to most affected altcoins having only two to three designated market makers who found it exceptionally difficult to place orders during the chaos. The resulting lack of price-setting mechanisms, combined with the blow-up of a smaller market maker, allowed prices to plummet.

00:08:09 The widespread 'auto-deleveraging' (ADL) event occurred when exchanges, unable to internalize the risk of massive liquidations, forcibly closed positions, effectively shutting down the market for market makers. This aggressive reshuffling, where profits from winning trades are used to cover losses from losing trades, was amplified by extremely high altcoin open interest, indicating excessive leverage among traders betting on new decentralized applications and historical price patterns without sufficient underlying buying. This led to a chaotic environment where major exchanges experienced 10-20% price discrepancies.

00:22:19 The fragmented perpetuals market, with numerous exchanges and a 'freeloader problem,' contributed to the chaos as exchanges operated with imperfect information about overall market liquidations. Each exchange prioritized ADL to avoid executing at the worst price, creating a 'mercenary' environment. Additionally, many investors, expecting rate cuts, were overly leveraged into these tokens, making them vulnerable when prices dropped more than 50% on some altcoins within minutes, without the ability to add margin or access reliable on-chain data due to service outages.