Bitcoin - The Final Cycle

The Bitcoin cycle, characterized by halving events every four years, potentially influences the price and creates bull markets followed by crashes. While external factors influence Bitcoin's price, the upcoming halving event in 2024 was anticipated to drive a significant bull run, and the speaker suggests that mass adoption, evidenced by corporate treasury reserves, national adoption, and Wall Street involvement, may lead to Bitcoin becoming a globally recognized currency.

Bitcoin Halving Cycles

• 00:01:25 The Bitcoin halving cycle, occurring every four years, reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin enters the market. This reduction in supply, combined with consistent demand, typically drives up the price, leading to bull markets, bubbles, and subsequent crashes. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, and prior halvings in 2020, 2016, and 2012 followed similar patterns.

Potential Final Cycle

• 00:04:18 The speaker suggests that the current Bitcoin cycle might be the final one if Bitcoin achieves widespread adoption as a global currency. This is because a stable currency cannot perpetually experience cycles of increasing and decreasing value. The speaker believes that mass adoption would eventually stabilize the currency and conclude the cycle.

Corporate Bitcoin Adoption

• 00:05:13 Publicly traded companies, influenced by MicroStrategy's example, are increasingly holding Bitcoin in their treasury reserves as a hedge against inflation and to potentially increase shareholder value. While this trend does not yet indicate widespread spending using Bitcoin, it signifies increased acceptance and demand for the cryptocurrency.

National Bitcoin Adoption

• 00:06:38 Nations, inspired by El Salvador's example, are beginning to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender or consider creating Bitcoin reserves. The United States, facing financial challenges, plans to create a strategic Bitcoin Reserve and purchase 1 million Bitcoin. This potential action could be followed by other nations and central banks, further increasing Bitcoin demand.

Wall Street Bitcoin Adoption

• 00:08:04 Wall Street's increased involvement in Bitcoin, through ETFs and funds, indicates greater accessibility for investors. However, widespread adoption by large money managers and pension funds into diversified portfolios is still developing. The speaker anticipates that greater mass adoption will lead to more investments from these passive investment funds.