Strategic Outlook on Geopolitics

The incoming US administration's foreign policy is expected to be highly personalistic, transactional, and focused on 'America First' principles. This could lead to uncertainty in the transatlantic relationship, including with NATO and Ukraine, and potentially more pressure on Iran, while the US-China relationship may continue to be characterized by economic decoupling and trade tensions. The panel of experts discussed the potential implications for global geopolitics, including the energy transition and the China-Europe relationship.

US Foreign Policy Outlook

• 00:06:59 The incoming US administration's foreign policy is expected to be highly personalistic, with an emphasis on 'America First' principles, and potentially more transactional in its relationships with other countries. The panel noted that the new administration is likely to be more prepared than in 2016, but may also be unpredictable and chaotic. There are concerns regarding the future of NATO, a potential negotiated settlement with Russia in Ukraine, and the impact on the transatlantic relationship.

US-China Relationship

• 00:17:11 The US-China relationship is viewed as a major catalyst for change in the geopolitical landscape, with potential for further decoupling and increased trade tensions. China appears prepared for this new environment, having already experienced the first trade war, and may seek to deepen ties with Europe and other economies to mitigate impacts. The Chinese government prioritized economic growth in response to the trade tensions.

Energy Transition

• 00:28:54 The incoming administration is expected to slow the pace of the clean energy transition in the US, with potential for rolling back parts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). However, market forces and geopolitical competition with China are expected to continue driving investment in clean energy. There is a growing need to focus on electricity prices, grid infrastructure, and technologies like nuclear and advanced geothermal to ensure a stable and reliable energy supply.

Middle East

• 00:37:32 The new administration's approach to the Middle East is expected to be characterized by a desire to reduce US military involvement and a potential escalation of pressure on Iran. There's concern that this could lead to further instability and conflict in the region. The relationship with Israel may become more complex as they are potentially given more 'running room' on sensitive issues with the Palestinians, which could create challenges for further normalization efforts with Saudi Arabia and other countries.

China-Europe Relationship

• 00:43:37 The China-Europe economic relationship is expected to become increasingly important as China seeks to mitigate the impact of US trade tensions. There is potential for collaboration in green technologies and infrastructure projects, but the panel highlighted challenges related to intellectual property transfer and potential for state requirements. Despite some complexities, Chinese companies are likely to continue investing and collaborating with Europe given the opportunities in the region.