Daybreak Weekend: Jobs Preview, Poland Election, Trump Tariffs | Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

The podcast previews the November jobs report, anticipating a rebound after October's weak numbers and discussing its potential impact on Federal Reserve policy. It also examines oil prices, which have remained stable despite geopolitical tensions, and analyzes the upcoming Polish presidential election, where the ruling party's candidate faces a challenge from a centrist opponent. Finally, the podcast explores the implications of Donald Trump's announced tariffs on Chinese and other North American goods, with experts weighing in on China's response and the potential for negotiation.

US November Jobs Report

• 00:01:07 The upcoming November jobs report is expected to show a significant rebound in job growth, potentially around 200,000, after a weak October report influenced by port strikes, Boeing strikes, and hurricanes. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the unemployment rate and may cut interest rates again in December, depending on the data, although the chair has indicated no rush to do so, preferring to wait for more information.

Oil Price Outlook

• 00:06:54 Oil prices have remained relatively stable in recent months, trading in the $70-$75 range. This stability is due to factors such as increased refinery capacity, higher production from countries outside OPEC+, and a loosening of sanctions on oil producers like Iran and Venezuela. Despite growing global oil demand, the International Energy Agency predicts an oversupply of oil in 2025, which could pose a challenge for OPEC.

Polish Presidential Election

• 00:12:47 Poland's upcoming presidential election in 2025 is anticipated to be a closely contested race between Rafał Trzaskowski, nominated by the centrist Civic Platform, and the ruling Law and Justice party's candidate, Karol Nawrotcki. The election is crucial as the presidency plays a significant role in Poland's legislative process and international relations, particularly with the European Union and the US. The outcome of the election could determine the direction of Poland's political and economic future.

Trump Tariffs on China

• 00:25:33 President-elect Trump has announced new tariffs on Chinese goods, including a 10% increase on existing tariffs and a new 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico. The announcement has sparked concerns in Beijing, but analysts anticipate a careful and measured response. China may use leverage such as restrictions on strategic metals exports to negotiate with the US, but the US has a strong hand in trade negotiations due to China's heavy reliance on the US as an export market.

Cryptocurrency Market & Trump

• 00:33:04 The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, has surged since the US election, with the overall market value rising by about a trillion dollars. The rally is fueled by increased confidence that Trump's pro-crypto policies, including a potential national Bitcoin stockpile and a White House post dedicated to digital assets, will lead to more favorable regulations and greater institutional investment. Asia-Pacific regions, such as Hong Kong and Singapore, are expected to follow US regulatory trends in this area.