Daybreak Weekend: Jobs Preview, Poland Election, Trump Tariffs | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

The podcast discusses the upcoming November jobs report in the US, the potential impact on the Fed's policy, and the outlook for oil prices. It also covers the upcoming Polish presidential election, the country's thriving IT sector, and the potential impact of Donald Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods and other economies. Finally, it discusses the impact of the incoming Trump administration's pro-crypto policies on the digital asset market.

US Job Market Outlook

• 00:01:07 The October jobs report showed a low number of jobs created, largely due to port strikes, Boeing strikes, and hurricanes. However, there are signs of a potential rebound in November, with low initial jobless claims and strong consumer spending. Bloomberg forecasts around 200,000 jobs to be created, which could lead the Fed to cut interest rates again in December, although they are in no rush to do so immediately.

Oil Price Outlook

• 00:06:52 Oil prices have been remarkably stable in recent months, trading around $70 to $75 per barrel. This stability is attributed to increased refinery capacity globally, increased production from non-OPEC countries, and continued high oil production in countries like the US and Canada. The International Energy Agency predicts an oversupply of oil in 2025 due to high supply growth, potentially causing a headache for OPEC in managing production.

Polish Presidential Election

• 00:13:33 The Polish presidential election in 2025 will be a key event in determining the country's political direction. The ruling party has chosen Warsaw's mayor, Rafal Trzaskowski, as its candidate, who is a pro-EU figure. The incumbent president, Andrzej Duda, is an ally of the nationalist Law and Justice party and has vetoed many of the ruling party's legislative agenda. The outcome will likely impact Poland's relations with the EU and its relationship with the United States under Trump.

Trump Tariffs & China

• 00:25:33 President-elect Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese goods and goods from Canada and Mexico. China is expected to respond cautiously and seek to negotiate with the Trump administration. China has some leverage through restricting exports of strategic metals, but the US has a stronger hand due to China's reliance on US exports. Companies are seeking loopholes by manufacturing in other countries to avoid tariffs.

Cryptocurrency Market Impact

• 00:33:04 The cryptocurrency market has seen a surge in value since the 2024 US election, with Bitcoin reaching all-time highs. The rally is driven by expectations of friendlier regulation and Trump's potential pledge to create a national Bitcoin stockpile. The growing adoption of Bitcoin ETFs by institutional investors and the possibility of a White House post dedicated to digital asset policy further boosts the market's confidence.