The podcast discusses several economic indicators showing divergence from typical market behavior, with some sectors contracting while the stock market continues to rise. Key stocks like Apple, Meta, and Microsoft are highlighted for potential breakouts, signaling a possible year-end rally. The podcast emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic data releases and earnings reports this week for clues about the market's future direction.
Economic Divergence
• 00:00:02 The US economy is experiencing unusual divergence between indicators. While the Chicago PMI and ISM Purchasing Manager's index show contractions, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is setting new highs. This divergence is due to factors like the global labor market recovery after pandemic shutdowns.
Potential December Rally
• 00:00:21 If certain stocks break out, a December rally could materialize. Apple's potential breakout above 237.33 could trigger a rally, with targets at 248.05, 257, and 261. The speaker also suggests that breakouts in Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia could confirm the start of a rally.
Key Stocks to Watch
• 00:00:21 Several key stocks are being monitored for potential breakouts. Apple is nearing a potential breakout at 237.33 and could reach 261 if it holds and breaks out. Meta is at the 50 moving average, with 602 as a potential target if it breaks out. Microsoft is forming a bull flag, with a breakout possibly leading to further gains.
Holiday Season Stock Performance
• 00:05:10 Certain stocks tend to perform well during the holiday season. Shopify could rise towards 127.42 if it breaks above its trend line. Nike may rally to 86 if it surpasses its 50 moving average. Amazon is expected to benefit from positive Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales news.
Earnings and Economic Data
• 00:10:07 Several companies are releasing earnings reports in the coming week, including Salesforce, Octa, Chewy, and Lululemon, among others. Important economic data releases will occur this week, including ISM Manufacturing PMI, job openings, and unemployment claims. The speaker suggests paying attention to these reports for insights into market movement.