Why global catastrophes probably won't kill us all | Luisa Rodriguez (2021)

The podcast explores the possibility of humanity's recovery from a global catastrophe that causes a significant population loss, but not extinction. The speaker examines various potential disasters, including pandemics, nuclear war, and climate change, analyzing their impact on population, infrastructure, and the environment. While the speaker finds it improbable that humanity would go extinct due to such an event, there is a possibility of a prolonged period of stagnation, delaying the development of advanced technologies and leaving humanity vulnerable to other threats.

Podcast Introduction

• 00:00:00 The podcast introduces Luisa Rodriguez, a researcher at 80,000 Hours, who has expertise in global catastrophic risks. The podcast explores the question of whether a global catastrophe that doesn't immediately kill everyone would lead to a temporary setback or permanently hinder humanity's progress.

Luisa's Journey

• 00:07:19 Luisa shares her background in global development and her transition to longtermism research. She describes her initial trial at 80,000 Hours and subsequent work at Rethink Priorities, the Future of Humanity Institute, and the Forethought Foundation. Ultimately, she returned to 80,000 Hours as a researcher.

Research Topic

• 00:11:43 Luisa describes her research on the probability of humanity recovering from a serious collapse of civilization. She highlights the lack of rigorous research on this topic, emphasizing the need for a sober analysis.

Lack of Research

• 00:14:59 Luisa shares her findings about the limited literature on civilizational collapse, particularly within the effective altruism community. She notes that while some hypotheses exist, there is a lack of well-organized research and public discussion on the topic.

The Knowledge

• 00:16:09 Luisa discusses Lewis Dartnell's book 'The Knowledge,' which provides a blueprint for rebuilding civilization after a catastrophe that leaves infrastructure intact. The book outlines steps for survival, basic agriculture, and pre-industrial technologies, potentially offering a guide for a post-apocalyptic society.

Non-Uniformity of Effects

• 00:29:25 Luisa emphasizes the non-uniformity of disaster effects, suggesting that some regions would be less affected than others, potentially leading to continued societal function even in the face of widespread collapse.

Nuclear Winter

• 00:34:38 The discussion focuses on the potential effects of a nuclear winter, particularly the localized impact of fallout and climate changes. Luisa highlights the potential for different regions to experience varying degrees of impact, with some regions potentially being more hospitable than others.

Grace Period

• 00:42:42 Luisa introduces the concept of a 'grace period,' a time after a disaster where survivors have access to existing infrastructure, supplies, and resources from the pre-apocalypse world. She explains that this period can be crucial for survival and rebuilding efforts.

Importance of Survivors

• 00:46:22 Luisa highlights the importance of the number of survivors in relation to the available resources. She explains that a higher number of survivors would deplete resources faster, while a smaller number would have access to larger stockpiles.

Knowledge Preservation

• 00:57:42 Luisa explores the challenge of preserving knowledge in a post-apocalyptic world, particularly in scenarios with a significantly reduced population. She emphasizes the importance of widely distributed knowledge, the relative ease of maintaining essential knowledge, and the potential for knowledge degradation over time.

Direct Extinction

• 00:55:50 Luisa examines the possibility of direct extinction following a catastrophic event that decimates the population, focusing on the likelihood of subsequent events causing the extinction of the remaining survivors. She argues that this scenario is improbable, given the non-uniformity of disaster effects and the potential for adaptation.

Indirect Extinction

• 02:01:58 Luisa shifts to discussing the indirect route to extinction, where a collapse of civilization leads to prolonged stagnation, leaving humanity vulnerable to other threats over extended periods. She suggests that while this scenario is possible, the odds of extinction within a few thousand years are relatively low, given humanity's historical resilience.

Boom and Bust Cycles

• 02:07:56 Luisa introduces the concept of 'boom and bust' scenarios related to climate change, where a period of high fossil fuel use and associated climate changes is followed by a failure to mitigate these changes. She explores two possible pathways for this scenario, one based on stagnation of technological progress and the other on the occurrence of a secondary catastrophe.

Resource Scarcity

• 02:11:15 Luisa addresses the concern that resource scarcity, particularly of fossil fuels, could impede recovery after a collapse. She argues that existing resources, such as coal, could provide a foundation for rebuilding, and emphasizes the potential for innovation and adaptation to address potential limitations.

Population Rebound

• 02:37:28 Luisa discusses the speed of population rebound after a catastrophic event, emphasizing the power of exponential growth. She suggests that even with a significant population loss, a relatively rapid rebound is possible, potentially within a few centuries.

Low-Hanging Fruit

• 02:44:05 Luisa identifies potential actions that could be taken to facilitate a more rapid recovery in the aftermath of a catastrophe. She highlights the importance of knowledge preservation, like seed banks, and infrastructure resilience, while acknowledging the need for more research and strategic planning.

Longtermism Implications

• 02:54:04 Luisa reflects on how her research has influenced her views on longtermism and cause prioritization. She argues that while collapse-causing catastrophes remain important to consider, she places greater emphasis on long-term risks like AI and values stagnation, which may have a more significant impact on humanity's future.

Climate Change and Boom and Bust

• 02:57:09 The discussion turns to climate change, focusing on 'boom and bust' scenarios where a period of high emissions is not followed by sufficient mitigation, leading to sustained climate change effects. Luisa explains the two primary pathways for this scenario, highlighting the challenges of technological stagnation and the potential for a secondary catastrophe to disrupt mitigation efforts.

Beyond the Podcast

• 03:04:15 The podcast concludes with a call to action, encouraging listeners to engage with the topic of civilizational collapse and to consider the potential for positive action in the present to mitigate future risks. Luisa emphasizes the value of further research and collaboration in this field.