With Tariffs On The Way, Here's How The Gold, Stock, & Bond Markets Will Be Affected

The podcast discusses two potential market scenarios driven by US tariffs: a global recession or an inflationary boom. Hartnett and Oliver's analyses converge on the likelihood of a global recession, suggesting US stocks may decline, US bonds rise, and gold rise as central banks fight recession. The podcast concludes with technical indicators for gold and silver futures, offering potential trigger levels for shifts in the market.

Tariffs & Inflation

• 00:00:05 Tariffs may reignite US inflation and cause the US dollar, stocks, and bonds to rise. Conversely, tariffs could instigate a global recession, leading to a drop in the US dollar and stocks while bonds and gold rise. The presenter suggests gold may initially drop before eventually rising.

Hartnett's Scenarios

• 00:01:30 Hartnett presents two contrasting scenarios based on the impact of Trump's tariffs: an inflationary boom if the rest of the world avoids recession, or a global recession if they fail. Hartnett favors the recession scenario, anticipating outperformance of bonds, international stocks, and gold over US stocks.

Oliver's Technical Analysis

• 00:07:39 Oliver's technical analysis largely aligns with Hartnett's recession scenario. He observes warning signals from the US stock market, Treasury bonds, and the dollar index. Oliver predicts a shift of assets away from equities into Treasury bonds and precious metals as a result of the global recession.

Gold & Silver Futures

• 00:11:59 Oliver provides technical indicators for gold and silver futures as potential triggers for market shifts. Closing above 2711 in February gold futures or 3088 in March silver futures could indicate a rally. Silver cracking below its 100-day moving average would signal caution for gold buyers, and vice versa for gold and silver.