Trump Sparks Peso Gains, French Bond Risk Hits Highest Since Euro Crisis | The Opening Trade 11/28

The Biden administration is weighing additional curbs on semiconductor equipment and AI memory chip sales to China, angering U.S. chip suppliers but still pursuing the measure. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission is investigating Microsoft for potential antitrust violations related to its cloud computing, AI, and cybersecurity offerings. The French bond market is experiencing heightened risk, with French bonds now trading at parity with Greek bonds, which has prompted concern about the stability of the French government.

Chip Export Curbs

• 00:01:44 The Biden administration is considering imposing further restrictions on the sale of semiconductor and chip equipment to China. Despite backlash from U.S. chip suppliers, the administration continues to pursue this measure. This has led to gains in Japanese chip stocks, reflecting the potential shift in market share.

Microsoft Antitrust Probe

• 00:03:14 The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is conducting a broad investigation into Microsoft, encompassing its cloud computing, AI, and cybersecurity operations. This probe is driven by concerns that Microsoft is using its market power to stifle competition and potentially pose security risks to customers, including the federal government. The outcome of this investigation is uncertain but could impact the tech giant's future.

French Government Crisis

• 00:05:44 The French bond market is exhibiting high risk, with French bonds trading at parity with Greek bonds, a significant development considering the perception of France's economic stability. This concern stems from the potential collapse of the French government, as Marine Le Pen's party has not yet decided whether to vote against the government's budget. The situation could further destabilize the Eurozone.

Lebanon's Economic Recovery

• 00:25:42 Lebanon's economy minister expressed cautious optimism about the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. He characterizes the truce as an opportunity for the country to recover from the devastation of the conflict, but emphasized the need for international aid and a unified government to rebuild the economy. Lebanon faces an estimated $15 billion in reconstruction costs, highlighting the magnitude of the challenge.

OPEC+ Delay

• 00:40:34 OPEC+ has delayed its meeting on oil production cuts until December 5th, postponing the decision on increasing oil supply. This delay is attributed to diplomatic discussions and concerns about market oversupply. With global demand expected to weaken in 2025, OPEC+ faces a difficult decision on balancing market share with oil prices.

Nordic Region War Preparedness

• 01:30:05 Countries in the Nordic region, particularly Finland and Sweden, are increasing their preparedness for potential conflicts, largely fueled by Russia's war in Ukraine. This involves public outreach through websites and leaflets advising citizens on how to prepare for various crises, including war. The region is also taking steps to bolster its defense capabilities, including increased military spending and stockpiling of essential supplies.

Remy Cointreau's Sales Decline

• 01:12:52 Remy Cointreau's sales have been declining, with the company citing high inventory levels from the pandemic and consumers' shift to less expensive spirits. The company expects a full recovery in the U.S. market by the end of the year, but remains concerned about potential tariffs that could be imposed by a Trump administration. The company's focus on maintaining price integrity limits its ability to compete with rivals.

Luxury Goods & Tariffs

• 01:23:00 The luxury goods sector is likely to see a rise in prices due to tariffs, but some companies, such as Ferrari, are well-positioned to pass on these higher costs to consumers. However, other companies that have already significantly increased prices in recent years may face challenges in further price increases. The impact of tariffs on luxury goods will depend on the elasticity of consumer demand and the ability of companies to differentiate their products and justify higher prices.