Décryptage : le gouvernement Barnier sur le point de tomber • FRANCE 24

The French government of Michel Barnier is facing a motion of censure and is likely to fall due to a vote by the National Rally party and the NUPES alliance. If the censure is adopted, it would be the shortest government in the Fifth Republic, leading to a period of uncertainty as Emmanuel Macron would need to form a new government and navigate a difficult political landscape to pass the budget. The government is attempting to dissuade the opposition from voting for the censure, but the chances of success appear limited.

Motion of Censure Vote

• 00:00:07 A motion of censure against the Barnier government is scheduled for a vote, with the National Rally party supporting the left-wing NUPES motion. If successful, the motion would likely result in the government's fall and be the shortest-lived government of the 5th Republic, as it requires a majority of 288 votes. The outcome is uncertain, but the likelihood of the government's downfall is high due to the joint vote.

Government's Possible Fall

• 00:03:55 If the motion of censure is passed, the Barnier government will likely fall, marking the shortest-lived government in the 5th Republic. The fall of the government is anticipated, with the opposition seemingly determined to remove the government. Emmanuel Macron is likely to need to form a new government to address this significant political upheaval and find a parliamentary majority to pass the budget.

Michel Barnier's Actions

• 00:01:39 Michel Barnier has engaged his responsibility on the Social Security financing bill and has made some concessions, but Marine Le Pen is likely to vote against it regardless. Barnier warned about the potential for chaos if the government falls, emphasizing the negative consequences for the country. Barnier's actions are seen as a last-ditch effort to avoid the government's fall, but his options appear limited.

Emmanuel Macron's Position

• 00:05:07 Since Michel Barnier's appointment as Prime Minister, Emmanuel Macron has entered a new phase of his presidency, where he has less direct control over government policy. Macron is now in a position of needing to find a new parliamentary configuration after a likely government fall, similar to the situation he faced last summer. He is likely to have to quickly appoint a new Prime Minister to ensure the government can function properly.

Marine Le Pen's Strategy

• 00:12:39 Marine Le Pen is facing strategic pressures, as she attempts to balance her ambition to present the National Rally as a respectable governing party while also satisfying her core electorate. The party's vote for the censure is consistent with its anti-establishment stance and may also be influenced by the possibility of an early presidential election. Le Pen's actions are complex and involve balancing multiple political goals, including her image and relationship with her core voters.