How Syria’s rebels launched a surprise offensive to retake Aleppo

12/3/24 •

Summaries by topic

• English

A surprise offensive by Islamist rebel groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), in Aleppo, Syria, has significantly altered the Syrian Civil War's dynamics. The offensive has resulted in territorial gains for the rebels and raised questions about the Assad regime's stability and the potential for renewed conflict, prompting concerns about a new refugee wave towards Europe.

Rebel Offensive in Aleppo

• 00:02:20 Syrian rebels, primarily Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a rapid offensive in Aleppo, seizing large territories from the Assad regime. This offensive was unexpected given the perception of a frozen conflict and Assad's perceived victory, which led to increased normalisation efforts with his regime.

Reasons for the Offensive

• 00:06:20 The timing of the offensive was influenced by various factors, including Israel's military actions against Iranian-backed groups weakening regional support for Assad and Russia's involvement in the Ukraine war reducing its support. The rebels likely assessed this as an opportune moment to advance.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)

• 00:07:52 HTS, the group leading the offensive, was founded in 2012 and was initially associated with Al-Qaeda and ISIS. It has since distanced itself from those groups and rebranded itself, aiming to be the main political force in Northwestern Syria.

Impact of the Offensive

• 00:11:54 The Aleppo offensive has had significant implications, doubling the size of the territory controlled by the rebels and highlighting the strategic importance of Aleppo as an industrial and transportation hub. The conflict's resurgence could reinvigorate the political process, although a renewed wave of fighting is more likely in the short term.

Israeli Conscientious Objection

• 00:20:18 An 18-year-old Israeli woman, Safia, refused her mandatory military service, spending nearly three months in prison as a conscientious objector. This decision, made before the October 2023 conflict, became more compelling due to her belief that violence perpetuates the conflict, and that Israel has a responsibility to find a peaceful solution.